Thursday, May 10, 2012
Outlook: Cloudy
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Apple @ $1 Trillion
Anyone can look at the numbers and see that Apple's stock price and total valuation are in a range well outside several standard deviations of historic norms. This makes any sort of statistically-justified prediction ludicrous. Much of Apple's growth has come at the expense of its competitors; they have shrunken in value by about the same amount that Apple has gained.
Extending this train of thought leads us to wonder if Apple's future lunch is just a larger share of a finite pie—the zero-sum game? How many companies will be driven out of business before Apple can reach the trillion dollar plateau? Apple's stock value is already greater than it's largest competitors combined! What's left but for Apple to consume itself?
On the other hand, it doesn't take an economist to know that we live in an ever-expanding world pie, and the most rapidly expanding pie slice is China. We can hardly begin to conceive of how large this market might become, or at least I have no means of calculating the effect Chinese consumerism will bring. But judging from the wild popularity of Apple's products in China, the trillion dollar goal doesn’t seem at all unreasonable.
While we’re making wild speculations, it should be noted that India is growing faster than China and is expected to become the largest country in the world before this decade is out? India might be also be the most tech-mad country in the world.
Okay, so there's room enough for Apple to become the first company to require 13 columns of digits on their balance sheet, but have they got the technology and marketing savvy to continue their incredible string of new products, each one more popular than the one before? It strains credulity to believe that such a thing is possible. And yet, why not?
For one thing, the culture of innovation Apple created is spreading, and not to it's historic competitors. The dogged competitiveness of other innovators, such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook is certainly a huge driving force, but there’s an even greater source of innovation helping Apple maintain its technological and product design advantages.
An Apple ecosystem has sprung up with an enormous international pool of independent and freelance developers and entrepreneurs. It’s as if there’s an endlessly expanding power grid spreading out from Cupertino, and the energy to drive it comes from the sheer brain-power wattage of so many brilliant, driven, people who find this the most exciting place to be.
It’s all quite intangible, but consider how many people would be willing to drop everything to work for Apple? This is what it used to be like for places like IBM and Bell Labs, the great innovators of half-a-century ago. IBM had so much brain power, that Thomas Watson Jr. had plans for building IBM University in Connecticut, and Apple is already larger than IBM ever was!
With so much innovation supporting Apple’s products, Apple can concentrate on pushing the entire ecosystem ahead, and this is exactly what they appear to be doing. Instead of reacting to competitor’s threats by blanketing the market with endless product variations, Apple remains focused on “the next great thing.” This strategic vision is what’s driven growth and will continue to drive Apple up to and on beyond the trillion mark.
Finally, can Apple remain Apple without Steve Jobs? Every colossus is different for being immense, so I think that even with Steve Jobs, Apple can’t help being transformed. Can they maintain the Jobsian focus and vision that created the colossus that is Apple? I believe the vision is clear for some years to come. I don’t know how long the current leadership can maintain the energy and drive needed to keep this vision in tact, but so far, it’s an incredibly impressive and successful group.
Apple’s challenge really is to remain focused. The distractions of being pre-eminent are huge. For instance, the U.S. Department of Justice price-fixing lawsuit brought against the six largest publishers and Apple, is always referred to as DOJ vs Apple! Similarly, the very real plight of Chinese technology workers is most notable and newsworthy because one of the factories sited makes Apple products! This isn’t unfair or unreasonable, just part of being #1.
So far, there’s no indication that the Apple juggernaut, the headlong consumer dash to mobile devices, and the storm of spinoffs creating an ever larger mobile market, shows no signs of running off the tracks. Apple at $1 trillion within two years? Sure thing!
Friday, March 9, 2012
Diminishing Elder Andreses
| Cousin: Dena Andres Fried Sister: Julie Andres Schwait September, 2011 |
There are only two left, Reubin, and the youngest of the 10, Dolly, a mere slip of a girl at 75. I've got this nice recent picture of Dena looking pretty pleased with things at a recent family gathering in Dallas, which I did not attend. Brother, Tom, is responsible for the photo.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
eBooks and Revenue Sharing—50/50 or bust!

Who else is ready to consider to match the 50% royalty model?
The vendor share of eBook sales is pretty standard at 30% of the sale price, though there are a number of extenuating circumstances that muddy these waters. Still, Amazon, Apple, and Barnes & Noble have made this a kind of eVendor standard. For the purposes of rough estimates, most of our books are likely to sell for $10.
$3.00 to the vendor
$3.50 to the author (or authors)
$3.50 stays in the WalrusInk bank account
Is this fair? Who knows? In fact, I'm not sure fairness can be calculated in this way, especially since, at lest for the moment, we're at the mercy of rapidly shifting market forces. But more importantly for the long run, will this allow WalrusInk to survive and prosper as a new venture and will our authors feel sufficiently compensated for their work to want to continue writing for us and to recommend us to their friends?
I suspect we'll be making many adjustments to this model as we publish more eBooks, markets continue to shift, technology changes, and eReading habits take some sort of recognizable shape.
Friday, December 24, 2010
In God We Trust; All Others Pay Cash!
Who Do You Trust?
An Essay on The Transformation of Trust in a Multivariate Universe
Losing the Mutuality of Trust
Reversing the Polarity of Trust
Trusting Doublespeak in an Orwellian World
Who Do you Trust?
I have observed the phenomenon of top-down trust used to manipulate business outcomes in much the same way parents will use guilt to manipulate children. But it's only recently that I've come to understand the general lack of two-way trust and the pervasiveness of paranoia in acceptable business behavior. This makes better sense when you consider the nature of competition and natural selection; survival of the fittest.Wednesday, December 22, 2010
ePublishing for fun and profit with WalrusInk
We love publishing
The WalrusInk partners are all experienced publishing professionals. Not only is it an industry we know well, it's something we love doing. For us, ePublishing is an opportunity to do what we love without the heavyweight burdens of old-fashioned publishing we feel are crushing the industry into oblivion.
We love technology
As much as we love publishing, we are also passionate about technology. ePublishing involves rapidly changing technologies that are ushering in a genuinely new age of publishing. While the publishing status quo sees these changes as a threat, we recognize them as a remarkably exciting opportunity with unbounded potential.
We love paradigm shifts
We see ePublishing as providing a fundamental shift in the way knowledge is shared, which is a pretty big deal and something we'll likely write about at greater length in the future, but for now, you'll just have to take our word for it.
We love authors
And finally, we love working with authors. We learn so much from our authors and it makes us proud to be able to help hone, clarify, and ultimately publish their work and make it available to buyers, the seekers of knowledge, our loyal customers.
WalrusInk: friend of authors, foe of tyranny!
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Pricing eBooks—Logical Assumptions Need Not Apply
There's really no consistent logic to how eBooks are currently priced. Publishers want prices higher to increase profit margins. Amazon wants prices lower to encourage increased sales volume. Apple wants prices more standardized, because that's just the way Apple does things. There have been reports of eBook editions selling for higher prices than printed editions, which makes little sense except that some publisher has decided that they can make more money this way. There have been reports of Amazon capitulating to publishers' demands to raise eBook prices, followed by reports several months later of Amazon forcing publishers to sell their eBooks at lower prices.
There's not much clarity to be gained by watching the big boys try to bully and bludgeon each other over pricing. WalrusInk pricing will attempt to establish a price that is fair to consumers and provides a reasonable profit to our partnership of editors and authors so that we can earn a reasonable living. We have attempted to model this with some assumptions about volume and velocity, but there's very little history on which to base our assumptions. One ends up with a set of variables that is larger than the set of constants, which is akin to looking at the stars to predict the future only to find that there are ever more stars and no predictable future.
Nonetheless, the eager-beaver budgeteers at WalrusInk have decided to base our model on a standard eBook price of $9.99. We could build a numerical model to justify this decision, but in the end, it seems like a fair and reasonable price from just about every point of view. It's easy to imagine that some of our shorter eBooks will sell for less, but we're more likely to want to split a book into two parts than go for a single book at a higher price. Why? That's a discussion for a future blog.