Thursday, May 10, 2012

Outlook: Cloudy

I'm a long-time follower of The Visual Thesaurus and enjoy receiving the daily Visual Thesaurus Magazine. Today, May 10, 2012, came this:

It's hard these days to be in the computer business and avoid "the cloud." All the big companies — Microsoft, IBM, Amazon, Cisco, and Apple, among others — tout their cloud services. For the most part, the folks who have to think about cloud computing are programmers. But odds are that you’re using the cloud today, and definitely will be tomorrow. What is "the cloud," anyway?
The linked article was contributed by a Microsoft Technical Writer, Mike Pope, who blogs about writing, and he does an admirable job of explaining The Cloud using metaphor and plain language. Since The Visual Thesaurus is a site about words, Pope includes a quote explaining, Why Cloud?

[M]any years ago those of us who built and sold client server applications, software and hardware used to draw a picture with the PC connected to a network and the network connected to a server. Since none of us actually understood how the network worked, we drew a cloud and labeled it "network" and left it at that. -Timothy Chou, Introduction to Cloud Computing (in about 1,000 words)
I've never seen a convincing story for the invention of The Cloud as a term to describe the collection of technologies and services this has come to stand for, but I am convinced that the ascendancy of The Cloud has a lot to do with the need for a label. So I've posted the following as a comment to Mike Pope's excellent explanation:

There's an another explanation for the coming of The Cloud, at least as a popularly used term for describing the nebulously amorphous services that happen off-site and out of mind. The Cloud is a marketing jackpot! 
All of the technologies that have come together to make The Cloud have existed for some time, but like so many things, they never had much application to consumer-oriented computing—Virtual Machines, client server computing, Software as a Service (SaaS), and a hundred other sugary snack terms for the Information Technology school lunch program have zero value to the rest of us. But wrap it all up in nice packaging for easy consumption, and you've got an amalgam every bit as delicious and habit-forming as chocolate granola bars. 
We may not know, understand, or care what's in this stuff, but we know it's good for us. I'll take second helpings on The Cloud, please, and don't be stingy!
While writing this, I looked up Timothy Chou and found his eBook available on Amazon as a free download. Coincidentally, it lives in Amazon's Cloud and it's now the first eBook I've examined using Amazon's relatively new Cloud Reader. I'm hoping that Mike Pope will follow up Outlook: Cloudy, with an explanation of cloudy articles and the difference between The Cloud and A Cloud!

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Apple @ $1 Trillion

There's an open inquiry posted on the Zintro website:

Their blogger-in-chief, Maureen Aylward, asks:

QUESTION: Some analysts predict that Apple will become the first company valued at $1 trillion dollar in a few years. With stock prices hovering at $600 per share, what does a market capitalization prediction like this mean for Apple and the market itself?

ANSWER: As a prediction, it means nothing. But is this a reasonable prediction, and if so, what will Apple and its market be like when this happens?

It's surprisingly easy to justify a not-too-distant future cap over $1 trillion for Apple stock. Has there ever been a company so successful in so many ways? Even bad news doesn't seem to tarnish Apple's golden image. But how long can a company maintain such exponential growth?

Anyone can look at the numbers and see that Apple's stock price and total valuation are in a range well outside several standard deviations of historic norms. This makes any sort of statistically-justified prediction ludicrous. Much of Apple's growth has come at the expense of its competitors; they have shrunken in value by about the same amount that Apple has gained. 

Extending this train of thought leads us to wonder if Apple's future lunch is just a larger share of a finite pie—the zero-sum game? How many companies will be driven out of business before Apple can reach the trillion dollar plateau? Apple's stock value is already greater than it's largest competitors combined! What's left but for Apple to consume itself?

On the other hand, it doesn't take an economist to know that we live in an ever-expanding world pie, and the most rapidly expanding pie slice is China. We can hardly begin to conceive of how large this market might become, or at least I have no means of calculating the effect Chinese consumerism will bring. But judging from the wild popularity of Apple's products in China, the trillion dollar goal doesn’t seem at all unreasonable.

While we’re making wild speculations, it should be noted that India is growing faster than China and is expected to become the largest country in the world before this decade is out? India might be also be the most tech-mad country in the world. 

Okay, so there's room enough for Apple to become the first company to require 13 columns of digits on their balance sheet, but have they got the technology and marketing savvy to continue their incredible string of new products, each one more popular than the one before? It strains credulity to believe that such a thing is possible. And yet, why not? 

For one thing, the culture of innovation Apple created is spreading, and not to it's historic competitors. The dogged competitiveness of other innovators, such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook is certainly a huge driving force, but there’s an even greater source of innovation helping Apple maintain its technological and product design advantages.

An Apple ecosystem has sprung up with an enormous international pool of independent and freelance developers and entrepreneurs. It’s as if there’s an endlessly expanding power grid spreading out from Cupertino, and the energy to drive it comes from the sheer brain-power wattage of so many brilliant, driven, people who find this the most exciting place to be.

It’s all quite intangible, but consider how many people would be willing to drop everything to work for Apple? This is what it used to be like for places like IBM and Bell Labs, the great innovators of half-a-century ago. IBM had so much brain power, that Thomas Watson Jr. had plans for building IBM University in Connecticut, and Apple is already larger than IBM ever was!

With so much innovation supporting Apple’s products, Apple can concentrate on pushing the entire ecosystem ahead, and this is exactly what they appear to be doing. Instead of reacting to competitor’s threats by blanketing the market with endless product variations, Apple remains focused on “the next great thing.” This strategic vision is what’s driven growth and will continue to drive Apple up to and on beyond the trillion mark.

Finally, can Apple remain Apple without Steve Jobs? Every colossus is different for being immense, so I think that even with Steve Jobs, Apple can’t help being transformed. Can they maintain the Jobsian focus and vision that created the colossus that is Apple? I believe the vision is clear for some years to come. I don’t know how long the current leadership can maintain the energy and drive needed to keep this vision in tact, but so far, it’s an incredibly impressive and successful group.

Apple’s challenge really is to remain focused. The distractions of being pre-eminent are huge. For instance, the U.S. Department of Justice price-fixing lawsuit brought against the six largest publishers and Apple, is always referred to as DOJ vs Apple! Similarly, the very real plight of Chinese technology workers is most notable and newsworthy because one of the factories sited makes Apple products! This isn’t unfair or unreasonable, just part of being #1.

So far, there’s no indication that the Apple juggernaut, the headlong consumer dash to mobile devices, and the storm of spinoffs creating an ever larger mobile market, shows no signs of running off the tracks. Apple at $1 trillion within two years? Sure thing!

Friday, March 9, 2012

Diminishing Elder Andreses


Cousin: Dena Andres Fried
Sister: Julie Andres Schwait
September, 2011

The eldest member of the Andres clan died yesterday, Dena Andres Fried, aged 98. My father, Reubin, 88, inherits the mantle of eldest from her. I did not know Dena or her three children particularly well, but we did see them on our semi-annual summer visits to Dallas when I was growing up. There would be large gatherings of relatives with much eating and a genuine sense of family. I always ate too much and ended up feeling sick, but my memories are primarily happy ones.

Dena was one of 10 first-generation-American cousins, the children of the four Andrusier brothers who emmigrated from Odessa (the one in the Ukraine) to Texas before WWI. Their father followed and died in post WWII Dallas without ever learning English; they all spoke Yiddish.

There are only two left, Reubin, and the youngest of the 10, Dolly, a mere slip of a girl at 75. I've got this nice recent picture of Dena looking pretty pleased with things at a recent family gathering in Dallas, which I did not attend. Brother, Tom, is responsible for the photo.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

eBooks and Revenue Sharing—50/50 or bust!


I've been reading the Tools of Change for Publishing LinkedIn group discussion for some months and felt compelled to respond to a recent thread started by Steve Weiss at O'Reilly:

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Who else is ready to consider to match the 50% royalty model? 

We at WalrusInk ePublishing are going with a 50% revenue-sharing model. (The old vocabulary with royalties, rights, and advances no longer applies, because we don't intend to "own" the IP, which is another story.) It feels fair and it's really easy to calculate revenue, because it shows up in the bank account at the end of every month, we hope. 

The vendor share of eBook sales is pretty standard at 30% of the sale price, though there are a number of extenuating circumstances that muddy these waters. Still, Amazon, Apple, and Barnes & Noble have made this a kind of eVendor standard. For the purposes of rough estimates, most of our books are likely to sell for $10.

$3.00 to the vendor
$3.50 to the author (or authors)
$3.50 stays in the WalrusInk bank account

Is this fair? Who knows? In fact, I'm not sure fairness can be calculated in this way, especially since, at lest for the moment, we're at the mercy of rapidly shifting market forces. But more importantly for the long run, will this allow WalrusInk to survive and prosper as a new venture and will our authors feel sufficiently compensated for their work to want to continue writing for us and to recommend us to their friends?

I suspect we'll be making many adjustments to this model as we publish more eBooks, markets continue to shift, technology changes, and eReading habits take some sort of recognizable shape.

Friday, December 24, 2010

In God We Trust; All Others Pay Cash!

Who Do You Trust?

An Essay on The Transformation of Trust in a Multivariate Universe

Trust is a cudgel. It's not meant to be, or at least it isn't defined as such. But in a world of hidden agendas, hierarchies, and group-think, "trust" has become a keyword for submission, subservience, and general me-too-ism. Here's how it works in this non-trusting world:

I say to you, "Can I trust you?" This is a signal requiring agreement and not a request for a thoughtful answer. In fact, the slightest hesitation to blurt back "yes," is an obvious "no." This is why there are contracts, which become a written form of trust; a very explicit, truth-or-consequences form. Without this sort of explicitness, trust can't be a yes or no question, so don't ask! 

Losing the Mutuality of Trust

Trust between two people requires a history of shared experiences. It requires mutuality and time. Furthermore, blanket trust isn't possible and probably not particularly useful except in the closest relationships. Especially in a business relationship, trust needs to have limitations and for good reasons. Let's start with the basics.

I'm generally a trusting person, which means that without any reason to think otherwise, I believe in the goodness of human nature, what Jean-Jacques Rousseau called our innate or uncorrupted morals. It's obviously a debatable point that has raised deep philosophical questions over the ages, but for the sake of simplistic argument, I want to like people and not think ill of them. People who are prone to paranoia come at life from the opposite side of generally distrusting people, a more Hobbesian state of brutishness and misery. If we limit this dichotomy of feelings to business behavior, things start to get confused. Instead of a linear axis with naive faith at one end and anti-social withdrawal at the other, we find people who are able to alternate between trust and paranoia as if personae can be turned on and off like the altered states of quantum mechanics. We'll call this manipulative trust, our cudgel, our bludgeon, our truncheon.

Reversing the Polarity of Trust

I'll extend this metaphor to account for manipulative trust and calculate degrees of behavioral effects, which I know is murky, but bear with me. In a purely reactive world, our trust-paranoia axis can be seen as a measure of mood, where each of us has some resting state along the axis and given a stimulus in one direction or the other, our change in mood can be measured like the arc of a thrown object. The object accelerates, reaches peak velocity, and then eventually returns to the resting state. It's a basic potential vs. kinetic energy formula and it's obviously overly simplistic, but it gives my metaphorical argument a base line.

Let's say I'm working on a project with a group of people. These are people I've worked with before, which means that there's some mutuality and trust between and among us. This hypothetical project is like an accelerating object, and if all goes well, we not only achieve a peak velocity, but we're even able to defy gravity and achieve a sort of escape velocity that launches this project into the altered state known as completion. This trust is focused on work (energy), and the synergy this creates magnifies our individual efforts to create a whole larger than the sum of its parts. One could call this the teamwork effect, but since the idea of teams implies an all-powerful captain, I prefer to think of this ideal state as a kind of  natural cooperation.

But since the world is a messy place, even for physics experiments, the ideal state doesn't necessarily resemble the state of the real world. In other words, stuff happens; and this is the unpredictable quantum nature of life. And just as nature abhors a vacuum, human nature doesn't exist in a void or even a two-dimensional space. Instead, individual lives are played out on the axis of time, and our progress along this axis is subject to the constant bombardment of external stimuli affecting our senses and or sensitivities.

Within this complex interaction of forces, energies, and emotions exist many subsets of the "real world." Universities, in their ivory-towered glory, are an obvious example of an idealized subset of the larger world. In my professional persona, I inhabit a more rough-beast-like subset known as the business world. Somehow, these subsets provide an excuse to change the rules of everyday life. In other words, human nature takes on a different energy state when passing from one real-world subset to another, and this is how something as basic as trust can be transformed from a state of mutuality into a blunt object.  

Trusting Doublespeak in an Orwellian World

Most generally, business institutions rely on hierarchical organizations to assign responsibility along a chain of command. Ultimate responsibility rests at the top of the org chart, with various divisions of responsibility delegated and spread out into multiple channels beneath. At each layer in this hierarchy, the superior node "trusts" the inferior nodes to fulfill some assigned portion of the larger responsibility. In this hierarchical arrangement, trust loses the idealistic sense of mutuality and is turned into a blunt instrument of subjugation. By the very nature of the org chart, trust becomes a one-way street. The superior node dictates the terms of trust in a process known as the delegation of responsibilities. The inferior nodes are entrusted to deliver, and failure to do so is viewed as a breach of trust. Thus standard business practice alters the nature of trust, turning into a uni-directional force, which is contrary to the very definition of trust!

Where trust in the larger world is built upon interpersonal relationships, trust in the business world is imposed by the nature of hierarchy. From a practical point of view, this allows trust to be used as a productivity tool, as a systematic means for maintaining orderly business processes, and even as a mechanism for team-building (a favorite business metaphor for uniformity). But using trust in these ways is ultimately manipulative and often amounts to a kind of tough love, aka character building, that many find appealing in a macho sort of way. 

If George Orwell can create a world where Love is Hate, then why not a world where trust is built on mistrust? We could even call this top-down trust, lacking any sort of mutuality.

Who Do you Trust?

I have observed the phenomenon of top-down trust used to manipulate business outcomes in much the same way parents will use guilt to manipulate children. But it's only recently that I've come to understand the general lack of two-way trust and the pervasiveness of paranoia in acceptable business behavior. This makes better sense when you consider the nature of competition and natural selection; survival of the fittest. 

Unfortunately for me, not only am I a trusting sort, but I'm not particularly competitive in most things. These two traits seem to go together and probably account in large measure for my lack of natural business acumen. It doesn't mean that I'm unable to succeed, just that my way of doing things looks wrong and downright misguided to many of the people I've worked with in the business subset of the universe. 

I don't think I can change who I am quite enough to become a conforming individual in the corporate organization. But I do try to understand this somewhat foreign world I've been inhabiting for so long. It's difficult to manage this feat in a non-judgemental way, and yet I do intend to continue to build upon my successes in this world. Do I trust myself with this task? Yes, but only as long as I learn how to trust those around me!



Wednesday, December 22, 2010

ePublishing for fun and profit with WalrusInk

We love publishing
The WalrusInk partners are all experienced publishing professionals. Not only is it an industry we know well, it's something we love doing. For us, ePublishing is an opportunity to do what we love without the heavyweight burdens of old-fashioned publishing we feel are crushing the industry into oblivion.

We love technology
As much as we love publishing, we are also passionate about technology. ePublishing involves rapidly changing technologies that are ushering in a genuinely new age of publishing. While the publishing status quo sees these changes as a threat, we recognize them as a remarkably exciting opportunity with unbounded potential.

We love paradigm shifts
We see ePublishing as providing a fundamental shift in the way knowledge is shared, which is a pretty big deal and something we'll likely write about at greater length in the future, but for now, you'll just have to take our word for it.

We love authors
And finally, we love working with authors. We learn so much from our authors and it makes us proud to be able to help hone, clarify, and ultimately publish their work and make it available to buyers, the seekers of knowledge, our loyal customers.

WalrusInk: friend of authors, foe of tyranny!


Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Pricing eBooks—Logical Assumptions Need Not Apply

There's really no consistent logic to how eBooks are currently priced. Publishers want prices higher to increase profit margins. Amazon wants prices lower to encourage increased sales volume. Apple wants prices more standardized, because that's just the way Apple does things. There have been reports of eBook editions selling for higher prices than printed editions, which makes little sense except that some publisher has decided that they can make more money this way. There have been reports of Amazon capitulating to publishers' demands to raise eBook prices, followed by reports several months later of Amazon forcing publishers to sell their eBooks at lower prices.

There's not much clarity to be gained by watching the big boys try to bully and bludgeon each other over pricing. WalrusInk pricing will attempt to establish a price that is fair to consumers and provides a reasonable profit to our partnership of editors and authors so that we can earn a reasonable living. We have attempted to model this with some assumptions about volume and velocity, but there's very little history on which to base our assumptions. One ends up with a set of variables that is larger than the set of constants, which is akin to looking at the stars to predict the future only to find that there are ever more stars and no predictable future.

Nonetheless, the eager-beaver budgeteers at WalrusInk have decided to base our model on a standard eBook price of $9.99. We could build a numerical model to justify this decision, but in the end, it seems like a fair and reasonable price from just about every point of view. It's easy to imagine that some of our shorter eBooks will sell for less, but we're more likely to want to split a book into two parts than go for a single book at a higher price. Why? That's a discussion for a future blog.